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Forecast for the Abajos Area Mountains

Dave Garcia
Issued by Dave Garcia for
Sunday, March 3, 2024
A fast-moving cold front has delivered 8 inches of new snow, strong winds, and an increase in avalanche danger. Skiers and riders are likely to trigger avalanches in recent deposits of wind-drifted snow. This problem is most pronounced on leeward slopes that face W-N-E where you can find drifts 12-18 inches deep. Swirling winds deposit fresh drifts around the compass and it is POSSIBLE to trigger slabs of wind-drifted snow at all aspects and elevations.
Persistent weak layers of faceted snow exist at the base of the pack on slopes that face W-N-E-SE. These layers will be stressed and potentially overloaded by blowing and drifting snow. This will increase the chances of triggering a very deep and dangerous avalanche.
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Weather and Snow
Weather
A cold front pushed its way through our region just before midnight bringing a quick burst of snow and a rapid drop in temperature. Light snowfall will continue in the post-frontal airmass, but I don't see much more accumulation for the Abajos and it should be mostly over by 11 AM. Gusty winds will continue this morning in the 20-30 MPH range out of the SW and should decrease to 10-20 MPH by this evening. High temps will remain right around 20 degrees and will drop to 10 degrees overnight. Monday should be partly sunny with a high of 21 and continued breezy conditions. An unsettled pattern remains through the week bringing more chances for snow.
General Conditons
Conditions have been pretty rough lately, as the mountains got completely wind-hammered. 8 inches of new snow will greatly improve skiing and riding conditions. The new snow fell with strong winds out the WSW and is easily blown and drifted into fresh slabs that will be sensitive to the weight of skiers and riders. These slabs could potentially be 12-18" deep on leeward slopes. The widespread formation of wind-drifted snow causes a rise in the avalanche danger. If you have been getting into bigger terrain lately, it is time to reel it back in. Look for the best and safest riding conditions on low-angle sheltered slopes today.
The new snow and widespread blowing and drifting snow will also increase the danger of avalanches failing on the deeply buried early season persistent weak layer. Deep drifts will add stress to this layer increasing the chances of triggering an avalanche. Any avalanche triggered in a slab of wind-drifted snow has the potential to step down to the persistent weak layer, causing a very deep and dangerous avalanche. You can keep it simple today by avoiding slopes that harbor this weak layer giving the snowpack a little time to adjust to this new load.
NWS forecast for the Abajo Mountains.
Snow totals and temps at Buckboard Flat (8924')
Snow totals and temps at Camp Jackson (8858')
General Announcements
This forecast is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This forecast describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur.
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