Introduction: Good
morning! This is Max Forgensi with the
USFS Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center with your avalanche and mountain weather
advisory. Today is Sunday, February 13th,
2005 at 7:30 am. This bulletin is
sponsored in part by Canyon Voyages,
Moab’s finest river running and retail store, proud sponsors of the Friends of
the Manti-La Sal Avalanche Center. This
advisory will expire in 24 hours and will be updated on Monday.
To see past advisories check out the ARCHIVE. To see current conditions go to our WEATHER PAGE. To see photos go to the AVIPHOTOS page.
General Conditions:
Clear skies this morning and cold temperatures will greet anyone
that ventures out into the La Sal’s this morning. Yesterday morning we received drizzle all the way up to
about 10,600’, above it was where we just sat in a cloud and prayed for snow. There is some heavy snow out in the
mountains, so heavy it has been compared to snow you get in the Pacific
Northwest. Storm totals are 4” at the
Geyser Pass Trailhead, 6” in Gold Basin and 8” at 11,000’. To top of the snow conditions, there is a
rain crust up to that 10,600’ level which will affect your skiing and riding
pleasure today. The road to the
trailhead is in decent shape, although it has yet to be plowed, the lack of
significant snowfall makes it so the road isn’t very messy.
Current Conditions: (click location for latest data)
Geyser
Pass Trailhead (9,600’): 43” at the
SNOTEL, 50” at the stake, it is 20 degrees at the TH at 6:00 am.
Pre-Laurel
Peak (11,700’): Back to the drawing
board on this one, hopefully by Monday evening we’ll have read-outs.
Gold Basin and South Mountain:
Around 75” to 85” of settled snow on the ground.
Mountain Weather: (At 10,500’)
The
storm came and left, the temperatures finally dropping significantly below the
freezing mark.
Sunday: 20% chance of snow before
noon. Partly cloudy with a high
temperature near 34 degrees. Winds will
be out of the Northnorthwest at 5-10 mph.
Sunday night: Partly cloudy with
a low temperature near 18 degrees.
Winds will be out of the West at 10-15 mph.
Monday: 50% chance of
precipitation. Mostly cloudy, with a
high temperature near 33 degrees. Winds
will be out of the West at 10-15 mph.
1-2” possible.
Avalanche Conditions:
Heavy
snow sitting on top of light snow….hmmm, makes you think, doesn’t it? The new snow was so moist, you could make a
snowball out of it very easily. Yesterday
we observed widespread collapsing and whoomphing, test slopes were reactive
under a skiers weight and stability tests yielded easy results. When the clouds lifted, there were no
observations of natural avalanche activity, although there could have been some. What concerns me the most today are going
to be trigger points out in the mountains.
Steep convex rollovers, shallow rock outcroppings where a skiers weight
can transfer energy deeper into the snow pack and tender cornices are my
greatest concern. I believe the snow
pack is under a precarious balance right now, all it is looking for is some
added stress (a.k.a. you) to come along to tip the scales to a failure.
The Bottom Line for today:
An avalanche danger of CONSIDERABLE
on steep slopes on all aspects and elevations, where there are poor anchors and
the trigger points mentioned above are present. For the rest of the La Sal’s, I am going to rate the avalanche
danger at MODERATE.
Nordic and Skate Skiing:
Snowmobile
traffic to Geyser Pass makes it a great day to get your skate skiing on, a
Nordic Track is set to Gold Basin.