AVALANCHE WATCH »
The risk of an avalanche is expected to increase significantly
but the timing and location are still uncertain. Stay tuned for updates.
|
 |
Notice: We expect the Avalanche Danger in the mountains of SE Utah to increase to HIGH or Level 4 of 5 with the strong winter storm that is forecast to affect our area through the weekend. 1-2 feet of new snow may fall on a very weak old snowpack creating unstable conditions and hazardous backcountry travel. Please make an informed decision before entering Mountain Terrain this holiday weekend. |
|
|
SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT |
 |
A new Rescue Sled has been placed at the top of the North Woods to replace the one that was stolen (?!) last year. Thanks to the Alta Ski Patrol for donating that sled to the Grand County Search and Rescue. Thanks also to Ryan Schatzenbach who helped me drag that thing up there. You may now smash yourselves in the N. Woods.
Also, we now have our GOLD BASIN study plot on line with snow totals from 10,000 ft. Yeehaw:
http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base.cgi?stn=GOLDB |
|
|
BOTTOM LINE
Danger by aspect and elevation on slopes approaching 35° or steeper.
(click HERE for tomorrow's danger rating)
|
Danger Rose Tutorial
|
Currently we are keeping the avalanche danger rating at MODERATE (L 2) with POCKETS Of CONSIDERABLE(L 3) in wind loaded areas above about 10,500 feet. Shady side slopes -NW through NE through E facing slopes have the weakest old snow and the bulk of the new snow load on them at the moment from sustained southerly winds. Avalanche Dangers are expected to rise with the onset of a strong winter storm over the SE Utah region. Be careful out there, the change is coming.
|
|
|
CURRENT CONDITIONS |
|
Less than an inch of new snow has fallen in what appears to be a really good winter storm for SE Utah. RH Values are rising over the last 3 hours and echoes are filling in the radar screen meaning this thing is starting in earnest. Snow totals in the La Sals have just fallen below 100% for the first time since Christmas so the timing is impeccable. Temperatures are warm across the region, near freezing at trailhead elevations with moderate to strong southwest winds.
Mountain access roads are still manageable, but be prepared for snow and drifting snow today - 4wd recommended to reach mountain trailheads. Roads will not get any attention until Tuesday, after the holiday weekend.
Grooming has been postponed until after the storm on the La Sal Nordic Trail system. |
|
|
RECENT ACTIVITY |
|
Nothing reported yet. Plenty expected.
Natural avalanches from wind event reported in San Juan Mountains to our east w/ very similar snow conditions.
You can submit photos and snowpack or avalanche observations here. Send 'em in!! |
|
|
THREAT #1 |
|
| WHERE |
PROBABILITY |
SIZE |
TREND |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
|
Over the next
48 hours.
|
|
|
Snow Thursday and so far this morning will reach a depth of about 5 inches in deeper spots and we are keeping the avalanche danger at MODERATE with POCKETS of CONSIDERABLE at and above treeline where drifting has occurred. Some drifting should be expected far below ridgelines with the strong winds we've had of late. Areas with highest danger will be NW-N-NW-E facing slopes from about 10,500 ft upwards where the old snow is weakest and the drifting from the strong South flow has been happening. Keep and eye out for smooth, possibly hard, rounded pillows of snow. They may be hollow sounding if you can hear anything over the raging winds.
The role of our old snowpack in the current and increasing instabilities cannot be overstated. The old snowpack in SE Utah, like Colorado, is a layer cake of various crusts and faceted grains that will not hold much of a new snow load. Forecast snow amounts are generous over the next 2 days and we expect a large rise in the avalanche dangers across the region. Heads up! Large and far running avalanches will develop with the current forecast. |
|
|
MOUNTAIN WEATHER |
|
NOAA MOUNTAIN WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE LA SALS @10,000FT:
Today: Snow and areas of blowing snow. Some thunder is also possible. High near 35. Windy, with a south southwest wind between 30 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight: Snow and areas of blowing snow. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 15. Windy, with a southwest wind 30 to 35 mph decreasing to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds could gust as high as 60 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible. Sunday: Snow and areas of blowing snow. High near 24. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Sunday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11. Breezy, with a west northwest wind 20 to 25 mph decreasing to between 5 and 10 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Washington's Birthday: Partly sunny, with a high near 28. Calm wind becoming southwest between 10 and 15 mph. Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 15. Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny and breezy, with a high near 30. Tuesday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a low around 16. Wednesday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. |
|
|
GENERAL ANNOUNCEMENTS |
We will update this message Sunday morning.
If you see an avalanche or would like to share any snowpack observations (please do!) you can call us at 435-636-3363, e-mail Dave at : dave@utahavalanche center.org, or use the backcountry observations form here. These observations really help! |
|
|
This information does not apply to developed ski areas or highways where avalanche control is normally done. This advisory is from the U.S.D.A. Forest Service, which is solely responsible for its content. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. |
|
This advisory provided by the USDA Forest Service, in partnership with:
The Friends of the Utah Avalanche Center, Utah Division of State Parks and Recreation, Utah Division of Emergency Management, Salt Lake County, Salt Lake Unified Fire Authority and the friends of the La Sal Avalanche Center. See our Sponsors Page for a complete list. |
